How Does Land Use Affect Public Vehicle Speeds in Developing Cities?
Frequently Asked Questions
Traffic in developing cities follows a much more complex and informal rhythm because datasets are often sparse and infrastructure is unevenly digitized. Furthermore, roads in these urban systems are shared by a diverse and unstructured mix of transport modes, including jeepneys, motorcycles, tricycles, buses, informal shuttles, and private vehicles, meaning imported transport models from developed countries do not always apply.
The research team, led by Christopher Monterola, worked closely with the local government of Cauayan City to install physical GPS sensors directly onto tricycles. Since tricycles are one of the city's most common forms of public transport but are typically invisible in transport research, using them as probe vehicles allowed the team to successfully capture everyday traffic behavior at the street level.
Vehicles move significantly slower near dense residential and commercial areas due to specific urban bottlenecks. Large malls slow traffic by attracting heavy pedestrian and vehicle activity, while smaller commercial establishments create bottlenecks when vehicles spill into the street due to limited parking, and residential areas contribute to slower speeds because of narrow roads and roadside parking.
The study revealed that traffic congestion is shaped not just by a vehicle's immediate surroundings, but by the wider neighborhood context. Machine learning models that analyzed land use across multiple distances, ranging from fifty to one thousand meters, performed significantly better, proving that congestion behaves like a neighborhood effect rather than an isolated street-segment issue.
By utilizing an interpretable machine learning technique called SHAP, the researchers identified that nearby residential areas and official road speed limits serve as the strongest overall predictors of vehicle speed. These primary factors are closely followed by the total number of road lanes, the specific time of day, and proximity to commercial establishments.
